After the shock

Hope dies last – it’s a nice saying. The first shock about the election results has settled down a bit (at least with me).

However, not yet among the Egyptians. But the situation does not look as completely black as it did 48 hours ago. Egypt is always good for any kind of surprises, and so it will be in this deadlock situation. Why?

I never expected the presidential elections to be honest and correct. But now there is a concentrated charge of accusations and indictments regarding vote rigging that is astonishing. For example, about eight (others say five) millions of more voters are listed compared to the parliamentary elections in November 2011. Egypt seems to have suffered (or enjoyed?) from a tremendous population explosion between November 2011 and May 2012! Then, results are going round that show that Ahmed Shafiq received 900’000 votes less than Hamdeen Sabbahi – this would place Sabbahi as second. Furthermore, ballot cards have again been found on the street. And ballot boxes have been discovered that had already contained ballot cards for Mohamed Mursi before the official start of the elections.

The losing candidates Hamdeen Sabbahi and Amr Moussa have filed an application to suspend the elections because of alleged vote rigging and irregularities, and until it has been settled if Ahmed Shafiq is eligible at all. This is not definitely clear yet. In addition, an application for corruption and profiteering is on the way against Ahmed Shafiq.

A member of the parliament demanded Mohamed Mursi to step back as a presidential candidate in order to save the revolution and to let Hamdeen Sabbahi pass to the run-offs. This is an exciting idea but the Muslim brothers would never act as honourable as that – their greed for power is their agenda.

These are just a few examples about what has happened since the first results appeared. The lawfulness of the election results can be challenged until tonight. By every news line coming in, I’m getting more and more confident that there will be a surprising way out of this deadlock. The situation remains exciting… and very hot.

Update:
The election commission has decided that Ahmed Shafiq and Mohamed Mursi will stand in the run-offs in Mid-June.

A shock

There’s no other word: the preliminary results of the elections since last midnight are really a shock.

After the vote counting of 25 out of 27 governorates, Mohamed Mursi is the front runner, followed by Ahmed Shafiq. How is this possible?

Mursi, the Muslim brother’s „spare tire“ – this expression was created by the Egyptians – has entered the presidential race only five weeks ago. The perfectly tuned campaign machinery of the MBs was at full speed: vote buying for 50 pounds and food packages for the needy included.

Nevertheless: many Egyptians said that they had been disappointed by the MBs work in parliament and they would not give them a second chance. Yet in spite of this, the MBs candidate got the highest share of the votes?

But the worse is still to come: Ahmed Shafiq is alledgedly on the second place. That means that there will be a run-off between the two of them in Mid-June. He is a “feloul”, a strongman from the old regime, has entered the presidential race also only recently, well knowing that he would be supported by well experienced fellows.

What a choice is this now: someone that wants to implement sharia and whose party is known meanwhile to be inapt regarding politics and to be liars against someone who personifies the old regime? Poor Egypt – what a shock!

Hamdeen Sabbahi, however, did surprisingly well; he is placed third. Intellectuals and the middle class voted for him. Losers are Abu El Fatouh, the ex-Muslim brother who could unite some Salafis in his favour, and Amr Moussa, the statesman and ex-President of the Arab Ligue.

It’s a strange result for me. But it seems as the final result will be as I’ve been supposing or fearing for some time already: Shafiq (or should I say straight forward “SCAF”?) will win in the end. I don’t see another way. When I push the shock away a bit, I can see clearer: it’s again a ringing slap in to the face, looks like revenge to the insubordinate Egyptian people. It looks like a hard punishment: now you can see what your revolution has brought to you: either a religious state or we continue as before. Egypt is obviously able to do the impossible: it starts a revolution, topples a dictator, pays with hundreds of deaths and an economic collapse only in order to elect a representative of the same dictatorship as their new president.

Activists, revolutionaries and liberals have understood meanwhile that they didn’t work well enough during the past 15 months. They will learn from their mistakes.

Those who hold the power and cling to it will also learn. What a disaster. What a long way to go for Egypt to reach self-determination, liberty and democracy.

The shock is deep, not as much with me, but more with the people around me.

Election Day

Today, it’s hot. Very hot. At nine in the morning, there were already 33° C in the shadow. And it will get hotter today, also in the figurative sense.

Today is the first of two election days, on which Egyptians vote for a president without knowing in advance who will be the one elected. Yet the majority can’t make up its mind who to choose. I asked some of my acquaintances.

S. goes to Alexandria since this is where he is registered and this is where he has to vote. He will make up his mind when driving all the way to Alexandra. It’s a nine hours trip.

M.R. has travelled to Ismaijlia (on the Suez Canal). He’s a very conservative traditionally thinking man and therefore very religious. Will he vote for a Muslim? No, by all means: he describes the long bearded Salafis and Muslim brothers and means that despite their long beards they were all liars. What’s written outside is not necessarily inside as well.

Our security, M., an elderly polite Sir who loves to chat with me has decided to vote for Amr Moussa, after having contemplated a lot. He sticks to established methods.

M.A., a surprisingly broad-minded man tends to vote for Hamdi Sabbahi, a nationalist and nasserist. Sabbahi has increased his popularity these days according to the polls. He seems to be the lesser evel. But M.A. can’t go to his home governorate – so no way to go to the polls.

A politically very versed radical, well-educated young man, S.K., is not going to vote at all. He has not been convinced by any of the candidates or their programs.

“And who are you going to vote for, tomorrow“, I asked a friend last night. “I can’t vote. I’m registered in Alexandria and am unable to go there now.” He’s annoyed about the fact, that Egyptians living abroad may vote, but he as well as hundreds of thousands can’t vote although he’s living in Egypt. Injustice!

Not only living beings are on the electoral lists, but also dead, soldiers and police men who actually are not allowed to vote. Why are they listed? They support those candidates that are pre-elected or should be or ought to be…

In case the Islamists lose the presidential race, they will make waves and go out to Tahrir, S.K. is predicting. And how should the SCAF react in this case? With violence? Given the actual density of weapons circulating in Egypt and given the Islamists being prone to violence could this be very dangerous.

It’s noon and there are 39° C. It’s extremely hot. It will even be hotter on the coming days – in every sense.

Presidential elections coming soon (II)

What is it about in the candidates’ campaigns?
At first sight: about religion.
At second sight: about religion.

It seems that Egypt is going to elect its next religious leader next week. This is at least my impression and I am not the only one. It only seems to be important, whether a candidate is very religious or moderately religious. There are secular candidates, but they don’t have a chance.

Besides, it’s about: is he a representative of the old regime, yes or no? It seems to be of little importance at the moment, however, it is not and we will soon know better.

The campaigns are about religion, about the veil, about the sharia, at first. And then about Israel: the peace treaty and the gas delivery should be re-negotiated.

This vote catching results in strange constellations:
The ultraorthodox Salafists support the moderate Abu El Fatouh (ex-Muslim brother; perhaps the Salafists want to score off the Muslim brothers). At the same time, Abu El Fathouh is also trying to gain the liberals’ votes. How?
The Muslim brothers’ candidate, Mohamed Morsi, wants to adopt the sharia although the MBs always pretended to be moderate.

Hardly anything is heard about how the country’s real problems should be faced. Education, infrastructure, jobs, unemployment, security, poverty and women’s rights seem to be unimportant. Ostensibly, it’s about the religion and the much hated Israel.

And hardly anyone realizes this.

What have mushrooms and plants got to do with democracy?

While looking back on what has happened in Egypt since January 25, 2011, the same picture repeatedly comes into my mind:

Mushrooms: growing fast, tiny, chaotic, all haywire, faster, higher, stronger, crushing others, suffocating them. As do white mushrooms in the spring. They turn up quickly and disappear quickly.

This is not how democracy develops. Especially not under the bad circumstances provided.

It would be so much wiser: taking good care of the delicate, vulnerable little plant, watering it and nourishing it, protecting it from too much sun and too much cold and by all means: giving it a lot of love and patience. Lots of patience.

Presidential elections coming soon (I)

My Arabic homework was: write about the most important thing that happened to you this week.

So I did.

In return, my Arabic teacher told me, what the strangest thing is for her at the moment. She is getting asked: “Madam, who are you going to vote for?”

I do not consider it really as a strange question because I suppose that mainly ordinary, uneducated people expect advice from the teacher. Yet no! Oh no, she says, even very educated, high ranking persons ask this question. I have to add that my Arabic teacher has always been politically active.

She’s shocked about the fact how hard it is for her fellow citizens to choose one of the thirteen candidates.

Is this really a surprise? Thirty (30!!!!!) years under the same political system. For thirty years, nobody had to care about a constitution, about human rights, about political rights and duties, about laws, about a parliament, about elections and about politics. For thirty years, it was beyond all questions: there was one party, one president. They had at their command all the power and those who were not with them, were outside. Outside means: in jail, in exile, in the underground or too poor to bother about anything else than the question: what would fill their stomachs the following day. Thirty years is a whole generation. More than 30% of Egypt’s population is younger than 14 years, that means, about 50% of the population never ever knew another system. Imagine!

And who is she going to elect? I didn’t ask, since this is of no importance. What’s the use of a president without a constitution? What are his rights? Without a constitution he will be a puppet like the present parliament. We agree about that.

We also agree about who will be the next president. And then? Then Egypt will be very dark, she says. Upon these words, I have again this strange feeling in my stomach that appears every time when I discuss the present situation with my students.

Riddle

What’s this: it’s sweltering, the view is only two hundred meters and everything  I touch feels as it has been lying on the beach? And I say to myself: fortunately, I haven’t had time!

No time for cleaning, is what I mean.

Correct: it’s another sandstorm. Tomorrow, I play it again: washing, cleaning, mopping… grrrr…