Overestimated intelligence

(published on my German blog on March 27, 2014)

So he does: El Sisi is running for the presidential elections. Many Egyptians argue that he is very clever and intelligent. Each time, I used to answer that if he was really that clever and intelligent, he would not run for the presidential elections. He may have been a good defence minister. However, this does NOT guarantee that he will also be a good president.

But he does. What a pity. I would have thought him to be cleverer. Sooner or later he will fail. The problems to be resolved are enormous. In addition, he raises too many hopes and once these hopes are deceived, the people will revolt once more.

Finally, if he IS that clever, how come that he is willing to participate in another round of fake elections?

Oh dear, what more Egypt has to face.

Egypt’s new president…

… is Mohamed Mursy, a Muslim brother. I watched the announcement of the supervision election committee live on Al Jazeera. What a tedious blah blah blah for rigged elections!

When the winner was finally announced, I almost felt sick. But this would also have happened if Ahmed Shafiq would have been the winner.

Then, I told myself that it is comforting that

• Mursi won’t have much power,
• the parliament will have to be re-elected and there will hardly be an Islamic majority,
• he and his party made many concessions to the liberals and to the minorities of the country during the recent days
• SCAF is not interested in an Islamic state.

I would have betted that Shafiq would become president. However, after the various shady moves by the SCAF days before, I started to doubt. Yet the result is the same: power is with the military.

Remains to wait and see which deals the military and the Muslim brothers have agreed upon and how clever the liberals will act. Important steps have to be made: the constitution needs to be written and a parliament has to be elected. And sooner or later the ruler should take care about the economy, education, health, infrastructure, growth of the population and and and and….

Never in his life B. has been thinking of emigrating although some of his relatives live abroad and therefore, his chances are good to get a Visa. But now his fear is so big that he is seriously reflecting whether he should leave his country. He’s a Copt.

Power games – deadly serious

Even before the ballot stations closed, the SCAF struck with another poker game: they announced another decree to the transitional constitution allowing them more or less complete power over all state functions.

Whoever will be nominated as the next president – he will not execute his office for a long time.

It is said to be a “soft” coup by the military leaders. And there are many rumours: on Thursday – when the election results should be announced – there would be blood. Since Monday already, both candidates let themselves celebrate as winners just as if they wanted to create facts. People are recommended to buy food on stock because there would be a curfew (over Cairo?).

SCAF has decided providently that civilians who behave “suspiciously” can be arrested by the military police. And the Muslim brothers don’t know better as calling for new demonstrations. They want their president and if they don’t get him it would be vote rigging and they thread with more upheavals. And with a second revolution. Especially they who were notably absent in February 2011.

One of my Egyptian „students“ said that the Interior Ministry’s police is one thing – but the Military police is something else. Bad times seem to come. Even me, I don’t have a good feeling. How much can be destroyed by the greed for power.

For the past one and half a year, I’ve been sitting in a theatre called world scene and observe a stage play, in which a country is being destroyed by those who merely focus on their own (economical resp. religious) interests. It’s a first grade drama.

Honest elections?

Yesterday and today, Egyptians may decide between the two worst representatives to become the next president: either an Islamic state whose representatives are liars or back to the old dictatorship. Of course, Shafiq does not communicate the latter one but promises democracy and no way back to the old system.

People are torn within. Whom should they vote for? Which one is the lesser of the two evils? (It’s not about who is the better one out of the two!). Therefore, many Egyptians don’t vote at all or submit a void ballot, some even write on it: “down with the military” and “down with the Muslim brothers”.

The rigging continues cheerfully. Some ballots have been discovered that were already ticked for Mohamed Mursi. Officially, it was due to a “printing mistake” and the ballots were replaced.

The funniest of all news however is the following: allegedly, pens with ink to get invisible after a while were used in some polling stations! Egyptians really do have plenty of fantasy – whether this news is correct or a mere hoax.

The Muslim brothers have challenged the constitutional court’s decision according to which the parliament is unconstitutional. The SCAF has given order for the parliament’s dissolution and soldiers are deployed at the entrances of the parliament house in order to deny ministers to get in.

These elections aren’t honest as well. But this does not really matter. Maybe they are the last elections for a long time. In discussions people tell me, that with the next elections after four years, everything would be better. But I doubt that there will be a “next time” at all. The play “democracy for Egypt” is over for the time being, participants are put away, the rules of the game are torn and the play board is drowned in the Nile. Now, the remains are getting cleaned up and then daily routine continues as before 25 January 2011.

What a mess

The constitutional court has decided today that the law regarding the parliamentary elections is unconstitutional. That means that the parliament that was elected in November last year has to be dissolved.

Nevertheless, all laws issued by the (invalid) parliament are valid. Same is so-called disenfranchement law that excluded remnants of the old regime from the right to be elected as president.

Yet exactly this law has been declared unlawful by the constitutional court – and so Ahmed Shafiq has been given the go-ahead.

What a mess! Since February 2011, Egypt is without valid constitution – there are only transitional provisions – and without legal parliament. The constituent assembly has fallen apart because the Islamists wanted to decide over the constitution. A new constituent assembly that has been established under pressure by the SCAF some days ago is also about to fall apart.

The transitional provisions give legislative power to the SCAF. The government that was appointed by the SCAF is in fact powerless and now there is even green light for a remnant of the old regime and a military faithful  to become the next president.

As by a miracle all the power is again concentrated with the SCAF! Well scored, smartly orchestrated! Short before reaching their goals, the Islamists have been whisked off with a simple gesture.

But: what comes next? Will the presidential run-offs be postponed? Will the constitution be written before the run-offs? Will parliament elections be repeated before or after? Or is neither of those necessary at all?

The military is again empowered to arrest civilians since yesterday – regardless of the abolition of the martial law. These are all signs for a clear strategy: the status quo before the 25 January 2011 is re-established with all power. I stress: with all power.

I never seriously believed in the Islamists reaching their goals – the SCAF would never allow that. They don’t allow any other power at all. I am still convinced that there will be more surprises like the one today. And again I ask myself: why is there now coup within the military??

However, I am very concerned about the activists. The accounts about the sexual assaults on women some days ago in Tahrir give an idea how things might develop.

What a mess – at first sight. Yet the closer one looks, the better one sees: there are reason and intentions behind.

Egypt is not ready for democracy – because the SCAF does not allow it.

After the shock

Hope dies last – it’s a nice saying. The first shock about the election results has settled down a bit (at least with me).

However, not yet among the Egyptians. But the situation does not look as completely black as it did 48 hours ago. Egypt is always good for any kind of surprises, and so it will be in this deadlock situation. Why?

I never expected the presidential elections to be honest and correct. But now there is a concentrated charge of accusations and indictments regarding vote rigging that is astonishing. For example, about eight (others say five) millions of more voters are listed compared to the parliamentary elections in November 2011. Egypt seems to have suffered (or enjoyed?) from a tremendous population explosion between November 2011 and May 2012! Then, results are going round that show that Ahmed Shafiq received 900’000 votes less than Hamdeen Sabbahi – this would place Sabbahi as second. Furthermore, ballot cards have again been found on the street. And ballot boxes have been discovered that had already contained ballot cards for Mohamed Mursi before the official start of the elections.

The losing candidates Hamdeen Sabbahi and Amr Moussa have filed an application to suspend the elections because of alleged vote rigging and irregularities, and until it has been settled if Ahmed Shafiq is eligible at all. This is not definitely clear yet. In addition, an application for corruption and profiteering is on the way against Ahmed Shafiq.

A member of the parliament demanded Mohamed Mursi to step back as a presidential candidate in order to save the revolution and to let Hamdeen Sabbahi pass to the run-offs. This is an exciting idea but the Muslim brothers would never act as honourable as that – their greed for power is their agenda.

These are just a few examples about what has happened since the first results appeared. The lawfulness of the election results can be challenged until tonight. By every news line coming in, I’m getting more and more confident that there will be a surprising way out of this deadlock. The situation remains exciting… and very hot.

Update:
The election commission has decided that Ahmed Shafiq and Mohamed Mursi will stand in the run-offs in Mid-June.